Luzerne County Covid-19 case rate soars past state rate

Until March 27, Covid-19 in Luzerne County looked a lot like Covid-19 throughout Pennsylvania. Then something happened, and things began to look much worse here.

The Times Leader calculated the rate of cases per 100,000 residents for both the county and the commonwealth from March 2, when the state Department of Health reported the first case in Pennsylvania, through Friday. Using the daily number of cases reported by the state and the U.S. Census population numbers, the rate was calculated by dividing cases by population, then multiplying by 100,000.

Luzerne County’s first case was reported March 15. From then through March 20, the county rate stayed below 1 case per 100,000 people. The state exceeded that benchmark on March 18, hitting 2 cases per 100,000 by March 20.

But the rate changes shifted dramatically after that. On March 21, Luzerne County’s rate more than doubled, to 1.9, while the state rate only climbed to 2.9. The county nearly caught up in the days after that, but stayed below the state. Then, according to the analysis, on March 27 both state and county had the same rate for first time since the pandemic reached Pennsylvania: 17.3 cases per 100,000 residents.

While the county rate slipped behind the state rate the next day, since March 29 Luzerne County’s rate has exceeded the state rate, and the gap has grown rapidly.

By the last day of March, it was Luzerne County 66.8, Pennsylvania 37.8. By Thursday, the county was more than double the state rate, 121 to 54.8. As of Friday, it was 152.52 to 65.77.

Luzerne County doesn’t fare much better when compared to other counties, at least to those with more than 100 cases. As of Friday, 15 counties had reached that benchmark. Luzerne County had the fourth highest rate among them, with only Northampton, Lehigh and Monroe Counties higher. And of those four, only Monroe had a rate above 160, at 233.

Without more detailed data, no conclusions can be reached on where the county’s hot spots are. The state has opted to give only county level data. But Hazleton Mayor Jeff Cusat called out his own city earlier this week, confidently predicting it would be the epicenter of the county’s cases. Shortly after that, Lehigh Valley Hospital Hazleton provided numbers that backed him up.

Hospital Dr. Michael Evans said Thursday that city’s cases had hit 74 on Sunday, 119 on Monday, 158 on Tuesday, 219 on Wednesday and 310 on Thursday. That would mean Hazleton made up almost 81 percent of all cases in Luzerne county Thursday.